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MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation

This stock

  • MarketSnap fair value$217.87
  • Next earnings3 Nov
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  • 5-year OutlookHere

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MPC stock logo

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

$459.28
-8.70
 (-1.86%)

5-year outlook

Delayed data

← Stock overview

Outlook profile Stretched

For information only — not financial advice.

Values today

Bear, Base, and Bull are values today. The gap is how far today's price sits from each of them. It is not a forecast of the share price in five years.

Fair value & forward multiple

EV/EBITDA Value

$81.10

Main approach — EV/EBITDA

-82.3% margin

MarketSnap Value

$158.04

Pre-calculated + market intelligence

-65.6% margin

Fair Value Confidence: Low

MarketSnap moderated this estimate because the selected models are far apart.

Forward P/E (5Y)

27.03×

Price ÷ year-5 avg EPS estimate

Values today, versus today's price

Scenario Value today Versus today's price
Bear $123 -73.20%
Base $158 -65.59%
Bull $250 -45.63%

Bear, Base, and Bull are values today. The gap is versus today's price. It is not a five-year return, and it is not a future share price.

Gap versus today's price

Bear -73.2% versus today's price
Base -65.6% versus today's price
Bull -45.6% versus today's price

Expected return through 2030

From today's price to the horizon value at the end of 2030, about 4.2 years from today.

At the horizon Value Return from today's price $10,000 invested today
Base horizon value $232.44 -15.00% $5,061
Bear at that date Unavailable. The Bear figure above is today's value, not a price at that date.
Bull at that date Unavailable. The Bull figure above is today's value, not a price at that date.

The horizon value blends EV/EBITDA, Forward P/E at the end of 2030, about 4.2 years from today. Today's MarketSnap Value is not that price. Bear and Bull at that date are unavailable, because those figures are today's values. The context part of MarketSnap Value has no future target and is not included.

Financial quality

Overall 68/100

  • Profitability Moderate
  • Balance sheet Strong
  • Cash flow stability Moderate
  • Shareholder dilution Low
  • Business predictability Low

Cash flow stability · Moderate

Free cash flow stayed positive across the recent fiscal years shown.

Show OCF, CapEx and FCF
Period end OCF CapEx FCF CapEx / OCF
2023-12-31 $14.1B $1.9B $12.2B 13.4%
2024-12-31 $0.0B $0.0B $0.0B —
2025-12-31 $0.0B $0.0B $0.0B —

Measures historical free-cash-flow positivity and stability, not future cash generation.

Source: Company cash-flow statements (reported) · Reporting periods: 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31

Investment style fit

Best suited for

  • Higher volatility tolerance
  • Patient, fundamentals-first investors
  • Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing exposure

Data confidence

77 /100

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For information only — not financial advice.

DISCLAIMER: The stock market data provided on this website is for informational purposes only and is not intended for trading purposes. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, we cannot guarantee that the information is accurate at the moment it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. We are not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided on this website. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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